Ruble Recovery Due: USD/RUB Forecast to Fall in 2015

ruble exchange rates

Ruble exchange rates (RUB) are due a recovery in 2015 after the dramatic declines witnessed in 2014.

Having endured hefty declines over recent months and end to the Ruble exchange rate’s woes could be nigh.

According to analysis from EXNESS, part of the RUB appreciation story will lie with an expected sharp recovery in oil prices.

Commenting on USD/RUB expectations for this year, Sergey Kochergin, Senior Analyst at EXNESS said:

“The drop of Brent Crude oil prices to 50 USD per barrel will likely lead to the dollar growing to 64 Rubles in the short term.

“Moreover, S&P's lowering of its rating for the Russian Federation to below "BBB-" in January may provoke a massive sell-off of Russian assets.

“In Q1 2015 we expect oil prices to fall to 40 USD per barrel and then rebound upward sharply, just as happened at the beginning of 2009.

“On the other hand, the Russian Federation's massive gold reserves and stabilisation funds, and major Russian companies' foreign currency earnings will allow the Russian Federation and Russian banks and corporations to survive 2015, in which time they will repay external debts amounting to 130 billion USD.

“According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in 2015 the rouble will grow stronger under virtually any influences.

“In our view, the USD/RUB exchange rate is overstated by roughly 12-17 roubles.

“In other words, over the course of 2015 the US dollar may return to the range of 45-50 roubles.”